Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ Set for One of Lowest Openings of His Career

Tena Milakovic
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Tom Cruise has established himself as a rare movie star capable of drawing audiences to theaters. With hits like ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ and the ‘Mission: Impossible’ series, he has become synonymous with the cinematic experience. However, the box office performance of ‘Digger’ is proving to be a stark contrast, as the numbers continue to decline.

Initially, the film was anticipated to be a bold departure from Cruise’s usual roles. Directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, it features Cruise as an arrogant oil tycoon responsible for an ecological disaster, with Warner Bros. marketing it as an awards contender. However, projections have steadily decreased, dropping from an initial forecast of $20 million to $30 million on September 11 to a range of $12 million to $15 million after Variety reported revised estimates.

On October 2, The Hollywood Handle reported that ‘Digger’ is now projected to earn between $6 million and $7 million during its domestic opening weekend. The film’s budget stands at $180 million, marking it as one of the largest flops in Cruise’s career. Other estimates are similarly grim, with Film Updates suggesting a range of $6 million to $9 million and Page Six reporting $8 million to $12 million.

The film managed to pull in just $1.2 million during Thursday previews, which Deadline described as soft across the board. This figure falls short of the $3.1 million that ‘One Battle After Another’ earned in previews before debuting at $22 million, although it did surpass the $770,000 earned by Francis Ford Coppola’s ‘Megalopolis’ in previews before its $4 million opening.

In comparison, ‘Lions for Lambs,’ a 2007 drama, opened to $6.7 million with a $35 million production budget. Deadline lists it among Cruise’s lowest North American openings since 2000, alongside ‘Rock of Ages’ at $14.4 million and ‘Jack Reacher’ at $15.2 million. Gold Derby considers ‘Lions for Lambs’ to be the worst of his career, and a $6 million to $7 million opening for ‘Digger’ would place it right at the top of that list.

It’s important to note that in earlier years, Cruise experienced single-digit openings, such as ‘Rain Man,’ which debuted to $7 million in 1988 across 1,248 theaters. However, those were different times for film distribution, as movies typically opened small and had longer runs. A modern release in over 3,300 locations presents a significantly different challenge.

Screenshot 2026 09 29 at 18 42 15 Digger 2026 Rotten Tomatoes

The film’s budget is a significant factor in turning a weak opening into a historic issue. Initially greenlit at $125 million, sources indicated to Variety that the budget ballooned to between $160 million and $180 million due to production delays. Warner Bros. disputes these higher figures.

Variety also noted that a film of this scale would need to debut around $40 million to justify its expenses. With an estimated $100 million spent on marketing and exhibitors taking approximately half of ticket sales, the break-even point is projected to be around $350 million globally, with Warner Bros. estimating it at $300 million.

The competition is also proving challenging. Amazon MGM’s ‘Verity’ garnered $4.5 million in previews and is projected to earn between $27 million and $30 million, while a Gold Derby chart shows ‘Digger’ lagging behind ‘Resident Evil’ and ‘Heart of the Beast.’ Critics are divided as well, with ‘Digger’ holding a Rotten Tomatoes score of around 52%, marking Cruise’s first film to receive a rotten rating since ‘The Mummy’ in 2017.

Reactions have been mixed. The Boston Globe labeled it the worst performance of Cruise’s career, while the London Evening Standard praised it as a masterclass. Hopes for awards recognition have also dimmed, with Gold Derby moving the film out of its top 10 for Best Picture and Cruise to fourth place for Best Actor.

The timing of the release adds to the disappointment. ‘Digger’ is Warner Bros.’ final release as an independent studio, arriving just days before Paramount’s $110 billion merger is set to close on October 6. Additionally, reports suggest that studio heads Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy are on their way out.

Cruise’s next project is already on the horizon, with ‘Days of Thunder 2’ scheduled to begin filming in March 2027 alongside Anne Hathaway.

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