‘Digger’ Competes with ‘Strange World’ and ‘Elio’ for Worst Global Opening

Avatar photoValentina Kraljik
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Every few years, a big-budget film hits theaters, only to see box office results that starkly contrast with studio expectations. These disappointing openings often serve as cautionary tales, with some becoming synonymous with the term ‘flop.’ Currently, box office analysts are suggesting that Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ may soon join this unfortunate list.

The discussion began with a list compiled by Box Office Forecast, which identified what it deemed the three worst global openings for films with budgets of $150 million or more that had significant international releases. The films in question are Disney’s ‘Strange World,’ ‘Haunted Mansion,’ and Pixar’s ‘Elio,’ each of which opened to global totals ranging from $28 million to $35 million.

On October 2, the tracker indicated that ‘Digger’ was stepping into the ring. Early day-one comparisons reveal a mixed bag, with the film lagging behind ‘One Battle After Another’ in Australia, Germany, and Italy. However, it outperformed ‘Asteroid City’ in Australia and Germany, though it fell short in Italy, while comparisons with ‘Birdman’ were varied. The tracker estimates that ‘Digger’ could see a global opening of around $25 million if it’s fortunate.

These figures align with reports from other sources. ‘Digger’ managed to earn only $1.2 million during Thursday previews, while Warner Bros. had initially projected a domestic opening of $12 million to $15 million. Internationally, 73 territories, excluding China, are expected to contribute an additional $15 million to $20 million, potentially bringing the global total to around $35 million at best, according to Deadline.

In comparison, ‘Strange World’ debuted over Thanksgiving 2022 with $18.6 million domestically over five days and $9.2 million from 43 international markets, totaling $27.8 million globally. With a budget of $180 million, it ultimately grossed about $73.6 million worldwide, resulting in a loss of approximately $197 million for Disney.

‘Haunted Mansion’ opened in July 2023, earning $24 million domestically and about $33.3 million globally against a $150 million budget. It was notably impacted by the SAG-AFTRA strike, which limited promotional activities from its cast, and it ended up grossing around $117 million worldwide.

‘Elio’ launched in June 2025 with a domestic opening of $21 million and $14 million overseas, totaling $35 million globally, marking Pixar’s worst opening ever. Despite strong audience ratings, the film’s budget was also $150 million, and its international rollout was still ongoing.

Screenshot 2026 09 29 at 18 42 15 Digger 2026 Rotten Tomatoes

The financial comparisons are crucial. ‘Digger’ was initially approved with a budget of $125 million, but sources indicate that costs ballooned to between $160 million and $180 million due to production delays. Warner Bros. disputes these higher estimates.

Additionally, Variety reported that around $100 million was allocated for marketing, suggesting that the theatrical break-even point is close to $350 million globally, according to industry insiders. Warner Bros. claims the break-even is $300 million. Regardless, ‘Digger’ would need exceptional performance to recover from a global opening that may not even reach $30 million.

The timing of this release adds to the pressure. ‘Digger’ marks Warner Bros.’ final release as an independent studio before the Paramount merger is finalized on October 6. It is also set to debut in second place behind Amazon MGM’s ‘Verity,’ which is anticipated to achieve a worldwide opening of $50 million to $55 million.

Critics are divided on the film, with some forecasts suggesting that its domestic opening could be Cruise’s lowest since ‘Lions for Lambs’ in 2007. Supporters argue that it represents a bold and ambitious effort from an Oscar-winning director. However, the box office results do not reflect ambition, and early indicators suggest ‘Digger’ may be headed toward a legacy that no studio desires.

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