‘Dunesday’ Odds Rise as Traders Predict It Will Break Barbenheimer Record
Box office analysts have been on the lookout for another Barbenheimer moment, that rare occurrence where two blockbuster films debut on the same day and boost each other’s box office performance instead of dividing the audience. While many attempts to replicate this phenomenon have fallen flat, one date in December is generating excitement reminiscent of 2023.
‘Avengers: Doomsday‘ and ‘Dune: Part Three’ are both set to release on December 18, and neither studio has budged despite ongoing speculation that one might shift their date. Fans have dubbed this event “Dunesday,” a playful nod to the cultural impact that Barbie and Oppenheimer had when they premiered together.
Prediction markets are now strongly supporting this comparison. According to Polymarket.com, traders believe “Dunesday” has a 93% chance of surpassing Barbenheimer’s domestic opening weekend record, a figure that has surged by 42 points as excitement builds.
The original Barbenheimer weekend set a high benchmark, with Barbie and Oppenheimer raking in approximately $235.5 million domestically. To beat that record, both ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ and ‘Dune: Part Three’ will need to achieve impressive box office numbers simultaneously, and early indicators suggest that both films are more than capable of doing so.
Advance ticket sales are already signaling historic demand for both films. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ has opened presales about 65% ahead of the pace set by ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ which eventually became the biggest domestic opening weekend ever with $360 million. Meanwhile, ‘Dune: Part Three’ has also shown strong presale momentum, reportedly earning around $10 million domestically on its first day of wider pre-sales.
Unlike the market tracking which film will outgross the other, where ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ has consistently been favored over ‘Dune: Part Three,’ this particular Polymarket contract focuses on their combined weekend total against the Barbenheimer benchmark. This distinction is crucial, as it doesn’t require either film to “win,” just for the two to collectively outperform what Barbie and Oppenheimer achieved.
The success of Barbenheimer was partly due to the stark contrast between the two films—a vibrant comedy facing off against a serious historical biopic, which turned the pairing into a cultural phenomenon. In contrast, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ and ‘Dune: Part Three’ share a similar tone, both being effects-heavy sci-fi epics targeting comparable audiences.
Nevertheless, the overwhelming anticipation surrounding both franchises seems sufficient to drive record-breaking projections, regardless of the lack of tonal contrast. With Robert Downey Jr.’s highly anticipated return to the Marvel Cinematic Universe and Denis Villeneuve concluding his ‘Dune’ trilogy, December 18 is poised to become one of the most closely monitored release dates in recent box office history.
Adding another layer of complexity, Warner Bros. has secured exclusive IMAX screening rights for ‘Dune: Part Three’s’ opening weekend, which means ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ won’t have access to those premium format screens domestically during its initial release. Whether this format disadvantage will significantly impact Marvel’s numbers within the overall “Dunesday” total remains to be seen.
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