Jack Lowden and Callum Turner Lead the Race for 007 as Bond Betting Market Heats Up

The search for the next James Bond is one of the most talked-about casting decisions in entertainment history. Fans have debated potential candidates for years, and even the slightest comment from an actor or director can cause the odds to fluctuate dramatically. What remains elusive, however, is the official announcement.

In February 2025, Amazon MGM took creative control of the franchise, with Denis Villeneuve confirmed as director on June 25, 2025. The script is being penned by Steven Knight, while Amy Pascal and David Heyman are producing, and Nina Gold is overseeing casting. On May 14, 2026, the studio released a rare statement confirming that the search for Daniel Craig’s successor was in progress, but has remained tight-lipped about the candidates.

This silence has turned prediction markets into a real-time gauge of fan expectations. Current figures show Jack Lowden and Callum Turner neck and neck at 32% each on Kalshi to become the next James Bond, with Josh O’Connor trailing at 23%. This deadlock marks a significant change from just a few weeks ago.

JUST IN: Jack Lowden and Callum Turner are tied in the odds to become the next James Bond https://t.co/XYIlyxM5qz

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 18, 2026

Back in mid-August, Lowden had taken the lead in the Kalshi market at 32%, overtaking former frontrunner Turner, who was at 27%, following an insider report. Jacob Elordi was at 13% at that time. This shift came after Richard Osman mentioned that Lowden’s name was being discussed.

By October 2, Kalshi’s market report indicated Lowden leading at 44%, with Turner at 39% and Jack O’Connell at 11%. Gary Oldman, who co-stars with Lowden in ‘Slow Horses,’ also expressed in an interview that Lowden has a strong chance of landing the role, according to Variety. However, Global James Bond Day on October 5 passed without any casting announcement, causing the momentum to wane.

The market has shown volatility as well. A separate Kalshi contract for Josh O’Connor saw a swing of about 27 points in a single day, reaching 29% around October 10, although no casting news supported this change. Jack O’Connell’s odds also rose after Danny Boyle publicly endorsed him, before settling around 5%.

Other platforms reflect similar trends. On Polymarket, the leading outcome has been “No Bond chosen” at approximately 34%, with Lowden at 33% and Turner at 18.7%. In traditional betting, Action Network’s James Bond Day update had Lowden leading at 4/5, followed by Turner at 11/4 and O’Connell in third place.

Despite the buzz surrounding the odds, the official situation remains quiet. Amazon MGM has yet to confirm any actor, and recent reports suggest that the casting process is advanced but without a final decision. It is also reported that Villeneuve is looking for a fresh face for the role.

At CinemaCon in April, studio film chief Courtenay Valenti acknowledged the anticipation, stating, “Now, I know you’re all wondering when we’re going to announce who’s playing James Bond,” according to The Hollywood Reporter. She emphasized that pairing the franchise with a world-class team sets the stage for something worthy of the Bond legacy.

An anonymous source reportedly informed TheWrap that any casting rumors should be taken with caution until the script is finalized and screen tests can take place. Villeneuve has also been reportedly reaching out to actors who advanced to further auditions set for August, though the exact number of candidates is still unknown.

Even after an actor is announced, fans will have to be patient. Deadline has suggested a target release date of November 2028, with filming not expected to begin until 2027. This timeline indicates that the new 007 will debut approximately seven years after Craig’s ‘No Time to Die’ in 2021, which concluded his five-film tenure that started in 2006.

Producers have hinted that casting news could emerge by the end of 2026, keeping speculation alive. Both Lowden and Turner are 36, an age that fits the reported criteria, and both have dedicated fan bases online. For now, the betting odds serve as a snapshot of speculation rather than definitive proof.

That’s part of the excitement. Prediction markets transform guessing into a competitive game, with every rumor, endorsement, and podcast influencing the odds. Whoever ultimately gets the role will have to navigate years of public debate before stepping onto the set.

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