Box Office Analysts Warn for ‘Supergirl’ as It Tracks Like Marvel’s ‘Thunderbolts’

The summer of 2026 is shaping up to be a competitive season for blockbuster releases, with superhero films vying for attention alongside major franchise reboots and family favorites. As the release date for the next big DC film approaches, focus is shifting to how this latest venture might perform at the box office.

That venture is ‘Supergirl’, directed by Craig Gillespie and featuring Milly Alcock as Kara Zor El. This film marks the second theatrical release in James Gunn and Peter Safran’s revamped DC Universe. Expectations have varied widely, with early discussions ranging from cautious optimism to outright concern about the film’s potential box office success.

Recently, new analysis has sparked conversation among fans. Current box office tracking indicates that ‘Supergirl’ is performing similarly to Marvel’s ‘Thunderbolts’, which opened to $74.3 million domestically and concluded its run with a worldwide total of $382.4 million.

To put this comparison into perspective, ‘Thunderbolts’ received an A- CinemaScore from audiences during its opening weekend, indicating a positive reception from ticket buyers. The film also garnered some of Marvel’s most favorable reviews in recent years, marking a notable recovery after ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ received a low B- grade from the same polling service.

If ‘Supergirl’ is indeed tracking in this range, it would indicate a relatively strong outcome for a film that has faced skepticism. Initial projections had been less optimistic, with some estimates suggesting an opening weekend closer to the mid $50 million range, which would place the film in a concerning position similar to 2023’s ‘The Flash’, a project viewed as a financial disappointment for Warner Bros.

However, the sentiment surrounding ‘Supergirl’ seems to have improved in the days leading up to its release. Recent pre-sale data indicates the film is performing approximately two and a half times better than ‘The Marvels’ at a comparable stage of ticket sales, while also tracking closely to ‘Black Widow’ and slightly ahead of ‘Thunderbolts’. This upward trend is crucial for a studio navigating a challenging moment for its revamped cinematic universe.

On the critical side, there is also reason for cautious optimism. As of June 10, ‘Supergirl’ was projected to achieve around a 76 percent critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes, placing it right at the edge of the coveted Certified Fresh designation. This anticipated score would rank the film below both ‘Superman’ and ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ in terms of critical reception, but well above the poorly received ‘Brave New World’.

Audience sentiment appears even more favorable if the circulating figures hold true, with reports of a high audience approval rating suggesting that general moviegoers may respond even more positively than critics. For a studio that has staked its future on creating a cohesive and beloved cinematic universe, strong word of mouth could be just as crucial as the opening weekend numbers.

Of course, tracking numbers can be unpredictable, and the difference between projections and actual performance can be significant once a film is released. Industry experts have noted that opening weekend tracking is not definitive, as films can exceed expectations and audience reactions can dramatically alter a movie’s trajectory once it hits theaters.

Additionally, the film’s budget is a significant factor to consider. Reports indicate that ‘Supergirl’ has substantial production costs, meaning it will need impressive worldwide earnings to break even, a reality that has overshadowed much of the pre-release discussion.

Nevertheless, with ‘Thunderbolts’ demonstrating that a modestly budgeted ensemble film can attract an audience and turn a profit through strong critical acclaim and audience word of mouth, a similar path for ‘Supergirl’ would be welcome news for DC fans. Whether this comparison holds true once actual numbers are available remains to be seen, but for now, the tracking has given the DCU faithful something to feel cautiously optimistic about.

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