‘Supergirl’ Box Office Predictions Raise Concerns for DC Film

‘Supergirl’ is gearing up to soar in the DC Universe, but recent box office forecasts indicate that the film may face a challenging road ahead.

Directed by Craig Gillespie and produced by James Gunn and Peter Safran, the upcoming DC Studios film is now projected to earn less during its opening weekend than previously anticipated. Starring Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, the movie follows the success of David Corenswet’s Superman, where Supergirl made a brief appearance before embarking on her own adventure.

According to a new report from BoxOfficeTheory, ‘Supergirl’ is currently estimated to earn around $48 million during its domestic opening weekend from June 26 to June 28. This estimate falls within a range of $39 million to $51 million, marking a decline from earlier forecasts.

Previously, the same outlet had anticipated a higher opening closer to $51 million, with a possible range between $47 million and $58 million. Earlier predictions had even suggested an opening as high as $65 million.

The lowered expectations seem to stem from various factors. BoxOfficeTheory noted that while early reactions from audiences and critics have been mostly positive, they are also mixed, which could impact interest leading up to the release. The report also highlighted that ticket pre-sales indicate the movie might have a strong first weekend but could heavily rely on opening-day audiences.

The outlet characterized its current $48 million prediction as “bullish” and cautioned that the film could potentially finish closer to $40 million if interest does not increase.

Other box office analysts are echoing similar sentiments. Box Office Pro estimates that ‘Supergirl’ could earn between $45 million and $55 million during its opening weekend. Meanwhile, entertainment journalist Matthew Belloni from Puck shared on X that early tracking from research company NRG has the film “sitting at $51 million for the 3-day opening.”

While these figures are not catastrophic, they pose a challenge for the film’s profitability. According to Deadline, ‘Supergirl’ reportedly had a production budget of around $175 million. Although this is slightly lower than Superman’s budget, the movie still requires a robust worldwide performance to be deemed a major success.

The film may need to gross over $300 million globally to start turning a profit, with some estimates suggesting it could require an even higher total depending on marketing expenses and theater revenue splits.

Additionally, ‘Supergirl’ is entering a crowded summer movie season. The film will compete against major releases like Pixar’s Toy Story 5 and Illumination’s Minions & Monsters, both of which are expected to draw large family audiences, making it harder for ‘Supergirl’ to dominate the box office.

Minions & Monsters, releasing shortly after ‘Supergirl’, is currently projected to open around $57 million domestically, slightly above the latest ‘Supergirl’ forecasts. The superhero film will also share its release date with Jackass: Best and Last, although that film is expected to have a much smaller opening.

More competition will emerge throughout the summer with films like Young Washington, Evil Dead Burn, the live-action Moana adaptation, and The Odyssey hitting theaters.

Despite these concerns, ‘Supergirl’ has several advantages. The film is part of James Gunn and Peter Safran’s new DC Universe, offers a fresh perspective on the character, and introduces Jason Momoa as Lobo. It is also expected to present a different style from Superman, focusing more on a cosmic adventure.

Whether ‘Supergirl’ can overcome these early concerns will hinge on audience reactions post-release. For now, the film is under pressure to demonstrate that Kara Zor-El can emerge as the next significant DC hero.

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