‘Moana’ vs. ‘Supergirl’ 2026’s Summer Box Office Disaster Battle Heats Up

The summer movie season hinges on a few major hits, and this year, Hollywood took two very different risks that both ended in disappointment. One studio aimed to breathe new life into a cherished animated franchise through live action, while another focused on expanding a newly rebooted superhero universe with a less familiar character. Unfortunately, neither gamble has yielded the expected returns.

Disney’s live-action ‘Moana’ debuted this month, featuring Catherine Laga’aia in the lead role alongside Dwayne Johnson as Maui, with a reported production budget of $250 million. Concurrently, Warner Bros and DC Studios launched ‘Supergirl,’ starring Milly Alcock as Superman’s cousin Kara Zor-El, with a production budget estimated between $170 million and $186 million, plus around $120 million in marketing expenses. Both films came with high expectations but have since fallen short.

The live-action ‘Moana’ opened with a global box office of approximately $95 million, which is $33 million more than ‘Supergirl,’ which managed about $62.6 million during its opening weekend. Despite this lead, it’s worth noting that ‘Moana’s’ $250 million budget is about $75 million higher than that of ‘Supergirl,’ meaning Disney’s film needed to earn significantly more just to break even, especially when considering the elevated marketing costs.

This context highlights why both films are being discussed as potential candidates for the year’s biggest financial flops, despite their differing performances.

Analysts have already predicted that ‘Supergirl’ could incur losses between $80 million and $100 million, as the film quickly fell out of the domestic box office top 5 within just two weeks, losing over 1,000 theaters as Warner Bros reduced its release. In contrast, ‘Moana’ has received acclaim from audiences, boasting a record-setting Rotten Tomatoes score for the franchise, yet its opening figures still fell short of Disney’s $130 million worldwide target.

Both films now threaten to undermine what could have been a historic summer box office season. With two high-profile flops occurring so close together, industry experts are increasingly focused on the remaining summer lineup to see if 2026 can still break records or merely finish with a whimper.

This is where Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ and Sony’s ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ come into play, both of which are now under significant pressure to bolster the season’s numbers. ‘Brand New Day’ has already achieved the strongest first-day domestic presales of any film in five years, a record last held by ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ in 2021, and has become Fandango’s top first-day preseller of the year.

Current tracking projections suggest that ‘The Odyssey’ is on track for a domestic opening exceeding $250 million, with some global estimates reaching as high as $550 million for its opening weekend alone.

‘The Odyssey’ has also gained momentum ahead of its July 17 release, supported by an aggressive marketing strategy that includes a six-minute IMAX prologue and physical Trojan Horse installations for public display. Between these two films, there are high hopes that a blockbuster performance in the latter half of July could compensate for the disappointments left by ‘Moana’ and ‘Supergirl’ earlier in the summer.

Whether this recovery will actually happen remains uncertain, but the contrast among these four films clearly illustrates the current audience preferences. Familiar remakes and lesser-known superhero spinoffs seem to be facing a much tougher path than original spectacle-driven event films or long-awaited franchise continuations, based on how ticket buyers have reacted thus far this year.

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