‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Breaks Box Office Record But Context Matters

Box office records rarely fall without complications. Occasionally, a figure emerges that seems unbeatable, only for the details surrounding it to be just as significant as the number itself when a new contender arrives. This week, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ finds itself in such a scenario.

The film has officially achieved the largest Thursday preview night in U.S. box office history, surpassing ‘Avengers: Endgame’s’ previous record of $60 million set in 2019. This figure includes early Wednesday screenings for Amazon Prime members, and at first glance, it appears to be a record-breaking moment that would typically lead to the biggest domestic opening weekend ever, even outpacing Endgame’s remarkable $357.1 million debut.

However, box office analysts have quickly pointed out factors that complicate this comparison significantly. Endgame’s previews began at a standard 6 PM start time in fewer theaters than it would eventually occupy on opening day. In contrast, ‘Brand New Day’ featured nearly a full day of preview showtimes starting in the early afternoon across over 4,000 theaters, effectively providing it with much more selling time than Endgame had during its preview period.

Additionally, there’s a broader industry trend to consider. Comic book movie openings have increasingly become more frontloaded toward previews over the years compared to the pre-pandemic period when Endgame set its record. This means that today’s preview numbers inherently carry more significance in relation to the eventual opening weekend than they did six years ago. Endgame itself garnered only about 17 percent of its opening weekend total from Thursday night, a relatively modest share by today’s standards.

Endgame also benefitted from advantages that ‘Brand New Day’ simply does not have. The Russo Brothers’ 2019 blockbuster earned $4.8 million domestically from 412 IMAX screens during its Thursday previews alone, part of a premium-format strategy that ultimately saw IMAX and 3D screens contribute significantly to its total opening haul. ‘Brand New Day’ lacks IMAX availability entirely, as Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ occupies the format’s entire domestic screen network for a multi-week exclusivity window. Sony’s Spider-Man sequel is also sharing its remaining premium large-format screens with ‘The Odyssey,’ rather than having the format’s full focus as Endgame did in 2019.

These combined factors have led some analysts to suggest that, under truly equal circumstances, ‘Brand New Day’ might have come even closer to Endgame’s previews or surpassed them more decisively than the current margin indicates. Still, even with all considerations, dethroning Endgame’s all-time opening weekend record remains unlikely.

For further context, Endgame’s Thursday previews were not just impressive in isolation; they directly contributed to a record-breaking opening day. That $60 million preview total became part of a $157.1 million single-day gross once Friday’s figures were included, a total that was the largest opening day in box office history at the time and helped propel Endgame to its still-unmatched $357.1 million three-day domestic debut.

What remains undisputed is the film’s dominance over ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home,’ which previously held the record for the second-biggest domestic opening at $260.1 million. ‘Brand New Day’ is projected to surpass that figure comfortably, notably without the holiday-season release window that boosted No Way Home’s initial run, while also running a longer overall theatrical day than its predecessor.

Regardless of the final numbers once they are confirmed, the sheer magnitude of Thursday’s previews has already indicated that this is poised to be one of the most historic opening weekends in U.S. box office history, caveats notwithstanding.

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