Prediction Markets Show ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Favored Over ‘Dune: Part Three’

Hollywood is gearing up for a box office showdown like no other, as Warner Bros.’ ‘Dune: Part Three’ and Marvel’s ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ are set to release on the same date, December 18. This scheduling clash has already been dubbed “Dunesday” by fans, as both films, among the year’s biggest blockbusters, prepare to compete for ticket sales, reminiscent of past shared-release events like “Barbenheimer.”

The anticipation surrounding this release date has become a focal point of the fall movie season, with box office analysts, exhibitors, and prediction market traders all speculating on which film will dominate. Despite ongoing discussions about a potential date change, neither studio has indicated any intention to shift their release.

As per Polymarket, traders currently assign ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ a 93% implied probability of outperforming ‘Dune: Part Three’ during their shared opening weekend, leaving ‘Dune 3’ with only a 7% chance. This disparity has widened since earlier this year, when the same Polymarket contract indicated Doomsday as an 89% favorite in June and a slightly lower 78% in early July, indicating growing confidence in Marvel’s film as the release date approaches.

This confidence seems closely linked to presale demand. Reports from World of Reel suggest that ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is on track for $100 million in preview sales alone, with some estimates indicating it could challenge or even exceed ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s’ record for the largest domestic opening weekend ever, further widening the gap between the two films in traders’ eyes.

Several factors contribute to this lopsided prediction. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ boasts a significantly larger budget, estimated between $500 million and $600 million, allowing Marvel to execute a robust global marketing strategy. In contrast, ‘Dune: Part Three’ operates with a more modest budget of $150 million to $200 million.

Historical box office trends also favor Marvel. The four previous ‘Avengers’ films have collectively grossed over $7.7 billion worldwide, with ‘Avengers: Endgame’ still holding the title of the second-highest-grossing film of all time. Meanwhile, the ‘Dune’ franchise has steadily grown, with its first film earning $410 million in 2021 and its sequel reaching approximately $714 million—respectable figures, but not on the same scale as Marvel’s ensemble films.

In addition to financial comparisons, format access is also influencing predictions. ‘Dune: Part Three’ has secured exclusive access to IMAX screens ahead of its release, with those premium showings reportedly selling out months in advance, providing the film with a distinct advantage in a high-demand format, even if its overall opening weekend numbers are expected to lag behind Marvel’s in standard theaters.

With both films just months away from their simultaneous release, the prediction market gap between them adds another layer to what is shaping up to be one of the most scrutinized box office weekends of the year. Whether this gap will remain or narrow as marketing efforts ramp up in the coming months is yet to be determined.

Have something to add? Let us know in the comments!