Prediction Market Estimates ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Rotten Tomatoes Score

Avatar photoRobert Milaković
AVENGERS DOOMSDAY 6 11
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Critics have generally been favorable towards the Avengers films, though opinions vary. Marvel’s ‘The Avengers’ achieved a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, while ‘Avengers: Age of Ultron’ fell to 75%. ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ scored 85%, and ‘Avengers: Endgame’ reached an impressive 94%. This variation sets a high bar for each new team-up film.

The challenge appears significant for 2026, even after a successful summer. ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ currently holds an 89% rating from critics, which wasn’t enough to secure a spot in the top 10 MCU films based on the Tomatometer. However, audiences responded more favorably, with the film grossing over $2.4 billion globally.

This makes the upcoming Marvel release a crucial test, and fans are eagerly seeking early indicators. According to Kalshi, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is projected to score 85.5% on Rotten Tomatoes, based on predictions from the market.

This prediction has remained relatively stable. Since its opening in April, the market’s forecast has fluctuated in the low-to-mid 80s. It was at 82% in mid-June, climbed to 84.8% by late August, and Kalshi’s market page indicated 84.7% earlier this week.

For reference, an 85.5% score would place it just above ‘Infinity War’ and significantly above ‘Age of Ultron.’ However, it would still trail behind ‘The Avengers’ and ‘Endgame,’ marking it as a solid but not record-breaking result. Importantly, it would surpass the 75% threshold needed for Certified Fresh status on Rotten Tomatoes.

The market’s confidence is nuanced, with Kalshi’s odds suggesting ‘Doomsday’ has about a 68% chance of scoring above 80, a 49% chance of exceeding 85, and a 30% chance of surpassing 90. Essentially, traders view an 85% score as roughly a coin flip.

Outside of this market, there is strong confidence in a baseline score. A different Polymarket market gives a 95% chance that the film will score at least 70, indicating that most traders believe the movie will avoid a negative reception. The more intriguing question remains how high it will go.

It’s important to approach these predictions with caution. These are live, evolving forecasts rather than definitive judgments, as the film has yet to be screened for critics, and the final score could differ significantly from 85.5%. Early predictions have been revised multiple times already.

The film has several advantages, including direction by the Russo brothers, Robert Downey Jr. portraying Doctor Doom, and a storyline that unites the Avengers, Wakandans, the Fantastic Four, the New Avengers, and the X-Men against him. It is set to premiere exclusively in theaters on December 18, marking the beginning of what Marvel calls the final chapter of the Multiverse Saga.

For now, 85.5% is merely a figure on a chart. Reviews will ultimately reveal the true story, and fans will soon discover whether the market’s predictions hold true.

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