‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Eyes Massive China Run, Sparking Record-Breaking Opening Talk

Avatar photoValentina Kraljik
avengers doomsday 51
Share:

Box office predictions can be both an art and a science, but certain figures capture the industry’s attention. With the next Avengers installment just two months away, forecasts are already emerging, particularly from the world’s second-largest movie market.

‘Avengers: Doomsday’ has been shattering pre-sale records for months. The film reportedly surpassed $100 million in global pre-sales more than two months prior to its release, achieving new highs in Brazil and the UK. It is also on track to surpass the record set by ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ which opened to $360 million in North America and $932 million globally.

Recently, an initial projection for the film’s performance in China has surfaced, and it’s impressive. Estimates suggest that ‘Doomsday’ could earn around $360 million in total there, leading some to speculate about the possibility of a $1 billion global opening weekend. While this figure is unofficial and Disney has yet to comment, it adds to the growing anticipation surrounding the film.

China has historically been a significant market for Marvel. In its first 11 days of release in 2019, ‘Avengers: Endgame’ grossed approximately $575.8 million there, with projections estimating a final total of around $612 million. In comparison, a $360 million projection for ‘Doomsday’ would be lower but still remarkable.

This difference illustrates the evolving market landscape. Chinese blockbusters now dominate local box office charts, and Hollywood films no longer enjoy guaranteed mega-hits. Nevertheless, a total of $360 million would rank among the highest for a Hollywood film in recent years.

The film also has several promising indicators in China. Disney has confirmed that ‘Doomsday’ will premiere there on December 16, two days ahead of its US release, with promotional materials emphasizing IMAX, 3D, and Dolby formats. On Maoyan, the film’s want-to-see count stood at 253,000, just shy of the 264,000 that ‘Endgame’ had at the same point.

Additionally, it ranks as the most anticipated foreign-language film of 2026 on Douban. China is one of the few international markets where the film will be shown in IMAX, which is significant since IMAX screens in most other territories are allocated to a competing film.

The prospect of a $1 billion global opening has been circulating since pre-sales began. Various outlets have suggested that the film could achieve this milestone, with some estimates reaching as high as $1.5 billion. Domestic projections vary widely, with some analysts predicting over $400 million in North America.

Conversely, more conservative analysts have offered domestic estimates as low as $230 million to $260 million, with a worldwide opening closer to $600 million. Even these figures would represent some of the largest debuts of the year, highlighting the high expectations surrounding the film.

A significant variable is ‘Dune: Part Three,’ which opens on the same day. Villeneuve’s film has secured IMAX exclusivity for its opening weekend in North America, leaving ‘Doomsday’ without this format in the US and most territories. Disney has countered with its own premium label, Infinity Vision, and an insider has pointed out that ‘Barbie’ and ‘Lilo & Stitch’ both crossed the $1 billion mark without IMAX support.

The competition could also impact Europe, where both films will vie for the same audience. This overlap has led some forecasts to temper their high estimates by considering how ‘Dune’ might influence performance in that market. The so-called ‘Dunesday’ clash could either enhance overall attendance or divide audiences.

It’s important to note that early tracking can often be unreliable. Pre-sales indicate enthusiasm from the most dedicated fans, but they don’t necessarily reflect the broader audience. Factors like word of mouth, reviews, and competition can all influence the final outcome.

Nonetheless, early indicators are promising. With a star-studded cast, a global release strategy, and rising demand in China, ‘Doomsday’ appears set for a significant launch. Whether it can achieve the $1 billion mark remains the key question.

Have something to add? Let us know in the comments!

Share: