‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Faces Off Against ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ at the Box Office

Tena Milakovic
Every Major Spider Man Brand New Day and Avengers Doomsday Leak So Far From Trailer Footage to Toy Reveals 3
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Few films have ever set expectations as high as ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’. The Tom Holland-led movie debuted on July 31, raking in $360 million domestically, shattering the previous record held by ‘Avengers: Endgame’ at $357.1 million. It also amassed $932 million globally, marking the second-best worldwide opening after ‘Endgame’s impressive $1.2 billion.

The film broke records across the board, achieving the largest Thursday previews ever at $72 million and the biggest opening day with $169.8 million. It eventually became the highest-grossing film at the domestic box office, surpassing ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’, and crossed the $2 billion mark worldwide.

This sets up an intriguing challenge for the studio behind ‘Endgame’. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is set to release on December 18, with the Russo brothers returning to direct and Robert Downey Jr. portraying Doctor Doom. Will it reclaim the box office crown?

According to Polymarket, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ currently leads ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ in the race for the biggest opening of 2026, with market predictions giving the Marvel Studios film a 54% chance, while the Sony film sits at 43%.

One detail worth noting is that while the race is framed around the biggest opening weekend, the Polymarket chart in its screenshot is titled “Which movie has the biggest opening week in 2026?” ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ already holds the opening-week record, with $510 million in its first seven days. These market odds are not official forecasts and can change rapidly.

The chart presents a compelling narrative. Polymarket’s market page shows ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ peaking at 86% back on April 28, but its odds have fluctuated as ‘Spider-Man’s’ actual numbers came in. The trading reflects ‘Brand New Day’ spiking around its release, followed by ‘Doomsday’ regaining the lead.

Tracking for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ has been remarkable, though the estimates vary widely. Global Box Office projects a domestic opening between $260 million and $300 million, while The Hollywood Reporter’s early tracking suggested $200 million to $250 million or more. Some forum-based trackers have speculated figures as high as $400 million to $450 million, although those remain speculative and outside official studio estimates.

Ticket presales have been a significant topic of discussion. Deadline reported that presales for ‘Doomsday’ surpassed $50 million domestically three months prior to its release. World of Reel noted that the film was tracking 67% ahead of ‘Brand New Day’ on its second day of tracking, though it was also much further from its release date at that time.

The competition could also play a role. ‘Dune: Part 3’ is expected to occupy IMAX screens during the same release window. Interestingly, ‘Brand New Day’ set its records without IMAX, as it was blocked from those screens by Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’.

Despite ‘Doomsday’ currently leading in the market, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ benefits from actual performance metrics rather than mere projections. Its $360 million opening translated to 24.5 million admissions, and it dominated the box office for five consecutive weekends. The all-time record for a domestic opening is a significant benchmark, as only two films in history have ever surpassed $300 million in a single weekend.

‘Doomsday’ faces its own set of challenges. Its budget is reportedly nearing $400 million, necessitating a massive opening to justify its costs. World of Reel estimates the break-even point at around $1 billion globally.

There’s also a Marvel angle that could work in the film’s favor. Marvel Studios is eager to demonstrate that its biggest team-up still holds significance. After a few tumultuous years, ‘Doomsday’ has quickly become one of the most anticipated Marvel releases in years, especially with both Downey and Chris Evans making their returns.

The Polymarket numbers are likely to shift as new tracking, trailers, and presale updates emerge. The market will remain active through the end of the year, and a definitive answer will not be available until ‘Doomsday’ premieres on December 18. By then, one of the most significant box office battles of 2026 will finally be resolved.

For now, traders are leaning towards ‘Avengers: Doomsday’, but a 54% to 43% split is hardly decisive. A record-breaking Spider-Man film has set a high bar for the Avengers to surpass.

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