‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Presales Reach ‘Pure Madness’ as They Rival ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’

Avatar photoHrvoje Milakovic
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The box office landscape is buzzing as we approach December, marking one of the most exciting seasons in years. Following the record-breaking success of ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’, all eyes are now on Marvel’s upcoming release, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’. The latest buzz around presales indicates that the excitement is only intensifying.

In a surprising move, Marvel opted for an early ticket sales strategy this time. Premium-format seats became available in July, with broader sales launching in August. This early approach is unprecedented for major blockbusters, making direct comparisons challenging yet intriguing.

A post gaining traction on r/boxoffice highlights this phenomenon. A tracker known as TheFlatLannister shared insights on the Box Office Theory forum, describing the film’s presale pace as “pure madness” and noting that it shows no signs of slowing down. This thread, which was reshared on Reddit, has garnered significant attention with hundreds of upvotes and comments.

The reference point for comparison is ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’, with data collected 71 days before its release. In one tracking sample, MTC1, ‘Doomsday’ is reportedly tracking similarly to where ‘Brand New Day’ was just 12 days prior to its release. Saturday’s numbers suggest it’s about 9 days out, with previews indicating a 19-day window.

Another sample, MTC3, supports this trend. The previews for ‘Doomsday’ align with the figures for ‘Brand New Day’ about 11 days out, while Friday’s numbers are close to 13 days out, Saturday is near 11, and Sunday is around 10. Essentially, ‘Doomsday’ is selling tickets at a rate that ‘Brand New Day’ only achieved much closer to its premiere.

The tracker also emphasizes that there are no indications of front-loading in sales, which often leads to a drop-off after an initial surge. He suggests that the film could see a strong internal multiplier due to a spillover effect. While this is just one analyst’s perspective, it’s noteworthy considering how early presales are frequently dismissed as merely a reflection of superfan enthusiasm.

The broader sales figures reinforce this excitement. According to Variety, Marvel’s first day of premium-format sales raked in $16.5 million, nearly double the first-day total for ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’. ‘Doomsday’ has also become the first film to surpass $40 million in domestic presales with around 100 days remaining until its release.

Global Box Office reports domestic presales exceeding $55 million, with Disney’s CFO confirming they have surpassed $50 million. Notably, over 70% of these sales have reportedly gone to Infinity Vision, Disney’s new premium large-format offering. As of October 6, the tracker indicated that worldwide presales had crossed the $100 million mark.

Internationally, the numbers are equally impressive. The film has been recognized as the fastest to exceed $1 million in pre-release sales in both Brazil and the U.K. Earlier reports from TheWrap indicated that after just two days, sales were running approximately 65% ahead of ‘Brand New Day’.

‘Brand New Day’ set a high standard, opening to $360 million domestically and grossing over $2 billion worldwide, making it the biggest opening in history. Projections for ‘Doomsday’ suggest a domestic opening in the range of $260 million to $300 million, with some insiders speculating even higher figures.

Some analysts have even proposed the possibility of a $1 billion global opening weekend, although these remain speculative estimates. The star-studded cast, featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, Chris Evans, Chris Hemsworth, and Florence Pugh, undoubtedly adds to the film’s appeal. Directed by the Russo brothers, known for their previous ‘Avengers’ successes, the anticipation continues to build.

However, not all sources agree with the “no front-loading” perspective. Some reports have characterized the presale trajectory as unusually front-loaded from the outset. Others caution that presales alone do not guarantee a record-breaking opening, and there’s still ample time for audience sentiment to shift.

Additionally, the timing is crucial. ‘Doomsday’ is set to debut on December 18, coinciding with the release of ‘Dune: Part Three’, which has been dubbed “Dunesday.” The Denis Villeneuve film will hold IMAX exclusivity for three weeks, prompting Marvel to develop its own Infinity Vision format.

For a studio that has faced a challenging few years at the box office, these early indicators are a refreshing change. A successful run for ‘Doomsday’ would follow closely on the heels of ‘Brand New Day’, creating a rare one-two punch for Marvel. It would also reinforce the notion that audiences still flock to true event films.

Of course, tracking at this stage is merely a snapshot, not a definitive conclusion. Reviews, audience reactions, and competition will ultimately influence the final outcome. For now, however, the early signs are impossible to overlook.

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