Betting Markets Suggest Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Is Possible

Avatar photoHrvoje Milakovic
Tobey Maguire as Peter Parker in Spider Man 2 2
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The question of who will portray Spider-Man in the Marvel Cinematic Universe continues to intrigue fans. With each new multiverse film on the horizon, the speculation ramps up: will Tobey Maguire return for another appearance?

As ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ approaches its release on December 18, the buzz around this topic has intensified, with many placing real bets on the outcome.

Marvel has unveiled a massive cast for the film, featuring Avengers, the Fantastic Four, the New Avengers, Wakanda, and heroes from the original X-Men series, including Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom. However, none of the Spider-Man actors—Maguire, Tom Holland, or Andrew Garfield—are listed among the announced cast.

The absence of Spider-Man from Marvel’s March cast reveal was particularly striking, with empty chairs marked for actors but none for Spider-Man. Some speculate that this is a deliberate move to keep spoilers under wraps, while others believe that Peter Parker may be reserved for ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’.

According to the prediction market platform Kalshi, the likelihood of Tobey Maguire appearing as Spider-Man in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ has surged to 92%. Over $2 million has been traded on this market, which has seen a steady increase in recent weeks.

This rise is significant. Earlier this year, Kalshi’s market for Maguire was around 71%, climbed to 87% to 89% in August, and hit 90% on October 1. At that time, Holland’s odds were at 41% and Garfield’s at 21%, making Maguire the frontrunner.

Part of this momentum stems from insider information. An analysis from August indicated that multiple sources claimed Maguire would have an expanded role as Spider-Man, which likely influenced traders’ confidence.

Additionally, a recent Marvel promotional reel highlighted Maguire’s Peter Parker following ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’, which fans interpreted as another clue. There are also rumors that his character might face a tragic fate at the hands of Doctor Doom in the film, although this remains unverified.

The situation for Holland has been more unpredictable. Initial reports suggested he would not be in ‘Doomsday’ but would have a significant role in ‘Secret Wars’, with some citing scheduling conflicts with Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’.

Garfield has been straightforward about his own involvement. In a GQ interview, he denied that he and Maguire would reprise their roles as Spider-Men in the film.

However, fans are cautious. Garfield previously denied his participation in ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ before ultimately appearing alongside Maguire and Holland, which casts doubt on the credibility of his current denials.

It’s important to clarify what the 92% figure represents. Marvel has not confirmed Maguire’s involvement in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’, and he was absent from the late-July trailer.

Prediction market prices reflect traders’ beliefs, influenced by rumors and fan hopes, rather than confirmed facts. Marvel may choose not to announce the cast ahead of time, leaving the market unresolved until the film’s premiere.

Moreover, the market’s rules specify that it only pertains to ‘Doomsday’, meaning if Maguire appears in a sequel but not in this film, the bet resolves as no.

With ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ set to be the last MCU film before ‘Doomsday’, the conversation around Spider-Man remains alive. If Maguire does make a return, fans will likely discover it in theaters rather than through a press release.

For now, the ongoing mix of rumors, hints, and market trends continues to fuel the speculation that has captivated fans for months. Marvel is known for keeping its biggest surprises under wraps until the lights dim.

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