Can ‘Michael’ Still Reach $1 Billion? Box Office Math Raises Concerns

The Michael Jackson biopic ‘Michael’ is on the verge of becoming the highest-grossing music film ever, but its journey to $1 billion has become more challenging.

As of Thursday, June 25, box office analysts reported that the film had earned approximately $965 million and is expected to reach around $970 million by the end of the weekend. This marks a global weekly increase of about $11 million, a significant drop from the $27 million it gained the previous week.

This slowdown is concerning for fans, as the film needs roughly $30 million more to hit the $1 billion mark. The competition is intensifying with new wide releases entering the market. Achieving this milestone would make ‘Michael’ only the second film this year to surpass $1 billion globally, following Universal’s ‘Super Mario Galaxy Movie.’

Currently, ‘Michael’ holds the second position on the global box office chart for the year and is recognized as the highest-grossing music biopic and biographical film ever. Its success is largely attributed to strong international performances in various markets, including Russia, Brazil, and Japan, which have all exceeded expectations in recent weeks. However, none of these markets can bridge the gap to $1 billion quickly if the weekly growth continues to decline.

The film debuted with a remarkable $97 million domestically and $217 million globally, marking the largest opening weekend in the biographical genre’s history. It has maintained impressive hold percentages in subsequent weekends, unlike ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ which opened with $51 million but ultimately grossed over $910 million worldwide through extended longevity.

International markets have been crucial to the film’s ongoing success, with the UK, France, Germany, Brazil, Mexico, and Australia each contributing over $30 million during its run. This consistent international support helps keep films in theaters long after domestic interest wanes.

Whether ‘Michael’ crosses the billion-dollar threshold may hinge on its performance in Japan, where it has consistently outperformed ‘Bohemian Rhapsody.’ The film is now in its tenth weekend, and competition for screen space is expected to intensify as new blockbusters are released in July.

While the possibility of reaching $1 billion remains, it is no longer a certainty. For a film that has set new standards for music biopics, falling just short of this milestone would still be an incredible accomplishment, even if it leaves fans anxiously watching every dollar.

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