‘Clayface’ Presales Slow Down Before Release, Tracking Indicates Lower Opening Than Expected
DC Studios is banking on horror with its third big-screen release, and the timing seemed ideal. ‘Clayface’ is set to debut just before Halloween, in a year where horror films have amassed over $1.1 billion at the domestic box office, with successful titles like ‘Obsession’, ‘Backrooms’, and ‘Resident Evil’ demonstrating that audiences are eager for thrills.
However, the film faces significant pressure from its franchise. ‘Supergirl’ opened to approximately $37 million to $38 million in June and concluded with a global total of just $126 million. Consequently, any signs of weakness for ‘Clayface’ are magnified. With a reported budget of around $40 million to $44 million, which is modest by superhero standards, break-even estimates range from $80 million to $120 million, depending on various factors.
The latest presales update brings a note of caution. A tracker from one theater chain indicates that ‘Clayface’ had a strong start on Monday but has since stalled, showing only minor growth leading up to its release. Current projections suggest a preview night of about $3.5 million and an opening weekend between $18 million and $20 million.
The numbers are mixed. ‘Clayface’ is now tracking 62% behind ‘Supergirl’ for its opening weekend, an improvement from the roughly 80% gap reported a week prior. However, it has fallen behind ‘Resident Evil’, trailing by 71%, and sits 82% behind ‘Evil Dead Burn’ for its opening weekend.
The tracker suggests that ‘Clayface’ is performing slightly better than a typical comic book movie but is not matching the performance of a horror film. ‘Resident Evil’ is considered the closest comparison, which informs the current projections.
The benchmarks are high. ‘Resident Evil’ opened to $60 million from 3,684 theaters in September, setting a franchise record that surpassed initial projections of $40 million to $50 million. In contrast, ‘Evil Dead Burn’ debuted to $13.7 million in July from 3,004 theaters, which explains the significant gap in presale figures.
This context clarifies the range of forecasts. Variety estimates ‘Clayface’ could earn between $25 million and $35 million, while Boxoffice Pro had earlier projected between $25 million and $30 million. Box Office Theory’s latest forecast sits at $15 million to $23 million, placing the $18 million to $20 million tracking figure in the lower range.
The review embargo lifted on October 21, just a day before Thursday previews, and the reactions have been mixed to positive. The film currently holds a score of about 73% to 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 on Metacritic. While not disastrous, this reception lacks the kind of buzz that typically boosts late presales. The tracking projections were established before these reviews were released.
There are some positives to note. Early tracking indicated that only 32% of potential viewers were aware of the film, but among those familiar with it, 21% expressed plans to see it on opening weekend, nearly double the usual rate. This suggests a dedicated core audience that could enhance word-of-mouth promotion.
Watch the first trailer for #Clayface. The new DC horror film is in theaters October 23. https://t.co/gqrrtJSou5
— Rotten Tomatoes 🍅 (@RottenTomatoes) April 22, 2026
Early international figures have also been reported. In Italy, ‘Clayface’ debuted in seventh place on its first day, while in France, it opened outside the top five, and in South Korea, it landed behind a Japanese animated film and a local release. Variety had projected $20 million to $25 million overseas from 76 markets, anticipating a global opening of $45 million to $55 million.
Home competition may not help either. A24’s documentary ‘You Can See Everything’ is expanding to around 2,600 venues and could vie for the top spot, while ‘Street Fighter’ enters its second weekend and ‘Wildwood’ arrives as alternative programming.
Presale tracking serves as a guideline rather than a definitive outcome. Horror films often depend heavily on walk-up business, and a Halloween-weekend release has inherent advantages that may not be reflected in advance sales. With a budget in the $40 million to $44 million range, ‘Clayface’ doesn’t need to be a blockbuster to avoid significant losses.
Ultimately, the coming days will reveal whether ‘Clayface’ can exceed its tracking predictions or if DC’s horror venture will begin modestly. Regardless, this weekend will be crucial in assessing how far the DCU can extend beyond traditional superhero narratives.
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