‘Moana’ Live-Action Remake Starring Dwayne Johnson Faces Disappointing Pre-Sales

Disney has established a modern business model focused on transforming its animated classics into live-action hits, but not every remake achieves the success the studio anticipates. This summer’s significant test case involves one of the company’s most cherished franchises, and the early numbers are raising serious questions about audience interest in this new version.

The live-action adaptation of ‘Moana’ is set to debut on July 10, featuring Dwayne Johnson reprising his role as Maui, the demigod he originally voiced, alongside newcomer Catherine Laga’aia taking on the title character previously portrayed by Auli’i Cravalho. Directed by Thomas Kail, known for his work on “Fosse/Verdon,” the film is based on a screenplay by Jared Bush and Dana Ledoux Miller.

Initial tracking suggested a promising outlook, with some estimates predicting the film could earn between 85 to 96 million dollars during its domestic opening weekend, figures that would surpass recent live-action adaptations like “How to Train Your Dragon.” However, that optimism has faded, and the latest pre-sales data reveals a more concerning narrative for Disney’s latest venture.

Revised projections have lowered the expected domestic opening weekend earnings to between 45 and 60 million dollars, with some trackers suggesting figures as low as 50 to 70 million, even before considering the weakest recent pre-sales data. This marks a significant decline from earlier estimates and positions ‘Moana’ on a path that could make it one of Disney’s more costly missteps of the year.

The financial implications are particularly concerning. With production costs reportedly around 200 million dollars before marketing, similar to past effects-heavy remakes like “The Little Mermaid” and “Beauty and the Beast” when adjusted for inflation, analysts believe the film may need to gross between 575 and 700 million dollars globally to be deemed a success rather than a financial failure.

Part of the challenge seems to stem from timing and market saturation rather than any specific flaw in the film itself. ‘Moana’ is set to open amid a crowded family film landscape already dominated by Universal’s “Minions and Monsters” and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5,” both of which have achieved impressive box office results this summer and are likely to continue drawing audiences away from Disney’s remake.

Additionally, a fundamental question looms over the project that industry analysts have raised repeatedly. Unlike Disney’s previous live-action remakes, which often revisited films from decades past, the original ‘Moana’ was released only in 2016. This means much of its core audience consists of children or young adults rather than nostalgic adults eager to relive a childhood classic. This timing raises a legitimate question about the necessity of a live-action adaptation, especially with “Moana 2” having already achieved a remarkable billion-dollar theatrical run in 2024.

Comparisons to Disney’s other recent live-action efforts have not been favorable either. Current forecasts for ‘Moana’ are below the opening weekend numbers of Disney’s divisive 2023 “The Little Mermaid” remake, a film viewed as one of the studio’s more disappointing box office performers in this genre. Industry observers have begun to draw parallels between Moana’s tracking decline and the recent challenges faced by Warner Bros.’s ‘Supergirl.’

With the film’s box office fate still uncertain and Johnson’s star power facing its own test outside the recording booth, ‘Moana’ has quickly become one of the summer’s most closely monitored box office stories for reasons Disney likely did not foresee. Whether the finished film can overcome its shaky pre-sales trend will be revealed once it officially opens.

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