‘Moana’ Presales Plummet as Disney’s $130M Global Opening Looks Unlikely

Disney has been promoting the live-action adaptation of ‘Moana’ as a surefire hit for the summer box office, relying on Dwayne Johnson’s return as Maui and the nostalgia surrounding one of the studio’s most cherished animated films. This confidence was evident during the film’s premiere at the Hollywood Bowl earlier this week.

However, the mood shifted dramatically after the premiere, as early social media reactions from attendees turned unexpectedly negative. Critics have labeled the film a lifeless rehash of the original, and this unfavorable reception seems to be affecting ticket sales as the opening weekend approaches.

Recent figures from box office tracking sources indicate that ‘Moana’ has only sold about four million dollars in advance tickets after nearly a month on sale. This has led to speculation that the film may struggle to even reach fifty million dollars domestically. The previously reported global opening estimate of 130 million dollars now appears questionable, with some analysts doubting whether it will even surpass 100 million dollars worldwide.

This represents a significant decline from earlier trade estimates, which had projected the film’s domestic tracking to be between sixty and seventy-five million dollars, with a global opening weekend forecast of approximately 130 million dollars when international numbers were included.

Other tracking services have reported similar downward adjustments in recent days. One box office analytics firm has revised its domestic forecast to a range of fifty-seven to seventy-two million dollars, reflecting a 23 percent drop from previous projections. They also indicated that the final domestic total could fall between 171 million and 210 million dollars if the film performs as anticipated.

The potential shortfall becomes even more apparent when compared to Disney’s previous live-action remakes. ‘Beauty and the Beast’ opened to approximately 174.7 million dollars domestically and surpassed a billion dollars globally, while ‘The Lion King’ debuted with 191.7 million dollars domestically, ultimately grossing over 1.6 billion dollars worldwide. Even a modest opening like ‘The Little Mermaid,’ which debuted around 95 million dollars domestically, would still indicate a stronger start than current projections for ‘Moana.’

Part of the challenge seems to stem from timing rather than a lack of audience interest. The live-action version arrives just a decade after the original animated film and only two years after ‘Moana 2,’ which grossed over a billion dollars worldwide during its record-setting release. This short interval has left less room for the nostalgia-driven demand that fueled earlier remakes like ‘Beauty and the Beast’ and ‘The Lion King.’

Additionally, the film is entering a particularly crowded summer marketplace. ‘Toy Story 5’ continues to perform well in its third weekend, Illumination’s ‘Minions and Monsters’ opened just a week earlier to the franchise’s lowest numbers yet, and Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ is poised to dominate nearly every premium format screen in the country just a week after ‘Moana’ debuts. This leaves the film with a limited window to gain momentum before losing audience attention and valuable theater space.

While this doesn’t guarantee a disastrous overall run, family audiences have historically shown up gradually for these types of films rather than rushing out on opening weekend. However, with a reported production budget exceeding 200 million dollars, a slow start places considerable pressure on the film’s ability to turn a profit once marketing expenses are accounted for.

Whether these concerning presale figures will lead to a disappointing opening weekend or if family audiences will turn out in larger numbers than anticipated will be revealed once actual ticket sales are reported this weekend.

Have something to add? Let us know in the comments!