Ridley Scott’s ‘The Dog Stars’ Posts Disappointing Preview Numbers That Worry Hollywood

Late August has never been the most favorable time for major theatrical releases, and Ridley Scott’s latest film exemplifies that risk. Expectations were already low as the release weekend approached, and the initial numbers are revealing an unsettling trend.

‘The Dog Stars,’ Scott’s post-apocalyptic drama based on Peter Heller’s 2012 novel, hit theaters this week with a pedigree that typically ensures at least a decent opening. With Scott at the helm and a cast featuring Jacob Elordi and Josh Brolin, the film appeared set to attract a moderate audience.

However, Thursday night’s performance was lackluster. ‘The Dog Stars’ managed to pull in just $850,000 during previews, a notably weak figure for a film reportedly made with a $110 million production budget, excluding marketing expenses.

For comparison, that preview revenue falls significantly short of similar genre films from recent years, with one industry benchmark noting a comparable film earning around $2 million in previews, leading to a $14.8 million opening weekend. Based on Thursday’s figures, some industry analysts are now estimating an opening weekend total in the low single digits, with projections ranging from $8 million to $9 million.

The film’s critical reception has not helped its case either. Currently, ‘The Dog Stars’ holds a disappointing 39 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes, a discouraging score for a film that needs strong word-of-mouth to counterbalance its substantial budget and late-summer release.

The narrative follows Hig, a former civilian pilot portrayed by Elordi, who resides at an abandoned airfield years after a flu pandemic has decimated the population. Brolin plays Bangley, a former Marine sharing the space with Hig under a tenuous agreement based more on mutual protection than friendship, while the supporting cast includes Margaret Qualley, Guy Pearce, Allison Janney, and Benedict Wong.

Earlier projections for the box office had been more optimistic, with some estimates suggesting a domestic opening between $18 million and $23 million. However, that outlook has steadily declined as tracking data has trended downward leading up to the release.

The film’s budget is what makes these numbers particularly alarming. At $110 million before marketing, ‘The Dog Stars’ needs blockbuster-level earnings just to break even, a threshold that this type of adult-oriented post-apocalyptic drama seldom achieves domestically.

For the film to have any realistic chance at profitability, it will likely require substantial support from international markets, in addition to unusually strong domestic retention in the coming weeks. Whether audiences will respond favorably enough to facilitate that remains uncertain as the weekend’s full figures come in.

For Scott, now 88 and still remarkably active in filmmaking, this represents another challenging box office situation following mixed results from his recent projects like ‘Napoleon’ and ‘Gladiator II.’ Nevertheless, the veteran director shows no signs of slowing down, with his next high-budget epic, ‘Treasure Island,’ already in pre-production.

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