‘Supergirl’ Box Office Previews Indicate It Will Land Between ‘The Flash’ and ‘The Marvels’

The initial box office results for ‘Supergirl’ are in, and they present a challenging outlook for DC Studios. According to box office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations, the film’s Thursday preview earnings suggest it will land between two of the superhero genre’s more troubled recent releases, a comparison that Warner Bros. likely did not anticipate as the weekend approaches.

Domestic previews totaled $7.8 million, which includes earnings from Wednesday fan events and Thursday showtimes that began at 3 p.m. This figure surpasses ‘The Marvels,’ which made $6.6 million during its preview period, but falls short of ‘The Flash,’ which garnered $9.7 million. The positioning between these two films is particularly significant, as both struggled to surpass $300 million globally.

‘Supergirl’ is projected to earn between $47 million and $50 million for its full opening weekend, although some independent models are predicting lower figures. The film carries a hefty $170 million production budget along with substantial worldwide marketing expenses. Compounding concerns is the film’s early audience reception, currently sitting at a 78% audience score and a 59% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes, both of which are notably below last year’s ‘Superman.’

The critical response has been sharply divided from the outset. The Hollywood Reporter’s chief film critic, David Rooney, described the film as an “uninspired slog,” while still acknowledging Milly Alcock’s portrayal of Kara Zor-El as “an appealingly punky protagonist.” Alcock stars in this follow-up to last summer’s ‘Superman,’ which launched James Gunn and Peter Safran’s rebooted DC slate with a $618 million global box office.

The cast surrounding Alcock is impressive on paper, featuring Jason Momoa as the notorious Lobo, along with Matthias Schoenaerts, Eve Ridley, David Krumholtz, and Emily Beecham. David Corenswet reprises his role as Superman. The storyline is adapted from Tom King’s acclaimed graphic novel, following Kara on an intergalactic adventure, a premise that initially generated significant buzz before reviews tempered excitement.

The film is entering a highly competitive market, with ‘Toy Story 5’ expected to dominate its second weekend with an estimated $80 million to $90 million. Additionally, a packed July awaits, featuring ‘Minions and Monsters,’ ‘Moana,’ ‘The Odyssey,’ and ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day.’ For context, ‘Supergirl’ needs to gross at least $340 million globally to break even, a target that neither ‘The Marvels’ at $206 million nor ‘The Flash’ at $271 million managed to achieve during their respective runs.

However, not all signs are negative as the film has secured over 80 sponsorship partners, delivering more than $100 million in combined media value through advertising, retail placement, and digital impressions. This could significantly lower the effective break-even point. Whether these partnerships will be sufficient to mitigate the impact of a lackluster theatrical debut will become clearer as the final numbers are reported on Sunday.

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