‘Supergirl’ Opening Weekend Struggles as Weak Walk-Up Numbers Indicate Trouble for DCU

The initial figures for ‘Supergirl’ are in, and they present a troubling outlook for Warner Bros. and DC Studios. As reported by @GlobalBoxOffice, the domestic walk-up numbers for the film’s opening Friday fell significantly short of the studio’s expectations, suggesting a weekend total that could be well below break-even levels.

Deadline reports that ‘Supergirl’ is projected to open with around $40 million, with Friday’s earnings estimated at $18 million when including the $7.8 million from previews. This figure is at the lower end of revised projections, which had already been quietly adjusted down from over $55 million to a range of $47 million to $50 million as reviews began to surface.

The critical response has dampened audience excitement leading into the weekend. ‘Supergirl’ currently holds a 57% rating on Rotten Tomatoes from critics, with an audience score of 76%. While the audience score is higher than recent DC films like ‘The Flash,’ ‘Shazam: Fury of the Gods,’ and ‘Joker: Folie à Deux,’ it pales in comparison to the 83% critics score that ‘Superman’ achieved, which helped it to a $125 million opening last summer.

The disparity between the two DCU films is striking. ‘Superman’ earned $22 million in previews alone before debuting to $125 million domestically and ultimately grossing $618.7 million worldwide. Those figures set a challenging benchmark for ‘Supergirl,’ partly due to Kara Zor-El being a less mainstream character than her cousin, and also due to the ongoing superhero fatigue affecting box office performance.

Meanwhile, ‘Toy Story 5’ is anticipated to dominate the weekend again, with estimates of $80 million to $90 million in its second weekend, leaving ‘Supergirl’ to contend for second place in a weekend already claimed by the animated sequel.

The financial outlook is not promising. With a reported production budget of $170 million and marketing costs likely nearing a similar amount, the film would need to earn between $300 million and $425 million globally to be deemed a success, depending on the studio’s break-even calculations. For context, ‘The Flash,’ which opened to $55 million domestically, ended up with $271.4 million worldwide, falling short of profitability.

The only other live-action ‘Supergirl’ film prior to this one was a notorious box office failure in 1984, and while this iteration is technically superior, the commercial similarities are not ones Warner Bros. will want to revisit. The studio has over 80 promotional partners contributing more than $100 million in media value tied to the film’s release, which could significantly impact the actual break-even point, but that buffer shrinks considerably with such low walk-up numbers.

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