Fans Are Betting Big on Who Dies in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ and Loki Leads

Marvel enthusiasts have always found reasons to speculate about character fates, but this year, the guessing game has evolved dramatically. Rather than simply sharing theories on social media, fans are now placing real bets on their predictions.

This shift mirrors a broader trend in the entertainment industry, where prediction markets are becoming a popular gauge for upcoming blockbuster releases. As we approach this winter’s major Marvel event, the focus has turned to a particularly grim question.

A Polymarket prediction market titled “Who will die in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’?” has garnered nearly $20,000 in trading volume as fans wager on which characters might not make it through the film’s climactic showdown. Currently, the odds suggest that Thor has the highest likelihood of dying at 65%, closely followed by Loki at 67% and Steve Rogers at 56%.

The market also indicates significant activity surrounding other key characters, with Captain America, portrayed by Sam Wilson, at 39%, Doctor Strange at 30%, and Ant-Man also at 30%. Interestingly, Doctor Doom, the film’s main antagonist played by Robert Downey Jr., has a notably low death probability of just 13%, suggesting that he may survive to continue the narrative into ‘Avengers: Secret Wars.’

This betting market is part of a larger wave of Polymarket activity focused on ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ this year. According to Covers, various prediction markets have tracked everything from which legacy characters will make cameo appearances to projections of box office performance, with traders showing strong confidence in Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man returning at an 80% likelihood, compared to Andrew Garfield’s 26%.

Box office-related prediction markets have also seen active trading. According to Yellow, Polymarket traders currently estimate ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ at just 18% to become the highest-grossing film of 2026, lagging behind ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ at 59%, even though Doomsday has a robust 75% chance of achieving the year’s best opening weekend.

This disparity largely stems from the timing of the releases rather than any lack of faith in the film itself. ‘Brand New Day’ debuted in July, allowing it nearly five months to gather ticket sales before the year resets, while ‘Doomsday’ is set to premiere on December 18, coinciding with Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune: Part Three,’ which fans have already dubbed “Dunesday.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket operate by enabling traders to buy and sell shares linked to specific outcomes, with prices reflecting the collective insights or speculations of thousands of participants rather than confirmed information from the studio. As with any fan-driven betting market, these odds signify pure speculation rather than actual plot details, and Marvel has provided no official confirmations regarding any character’s fate ahead of the film’s December release.

With ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ still months away and directed by Anthony and Joe Russo, the duo behind the emotionally charged ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ and ‘Avengers: Endgame,’ fans are clearly leaving no stone unturned in their attempts to predict who will survive this next chapter.

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