‘The Odyssey’ Leads Best Picture Race as Spanish Challenger Gains Momentum

Avatar photoHrvoje Milakovic
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Christopher Nolan has spent the summer demonstrating that the big-screen epic is far from obsolete. His adaptation of Homer’s poem debuted as an R-rated, nearly three-hour blockbuster with a reported $250 million budget, and it has quickly become the biggest hit of his career. Now, the awards conversation is catching up.

The film premiered on July 17, raking in $124.5 million domestically and $264.1 million globally, and it has shown remarkable staying power, with a second weekend drop of just 27%. It has since grossed approximately $1.721 billion worldwide, surpassing ‘The Dark Knight Rises’ as Nolan’s highest-grossing film and outpacing the $975.8 million earned by ‘Oppenheimer’, which won 7 Oscars. Notably, it is the first feature filmed entirely on IMAX 70mm cameras and boasts a 95% score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Prediction markets have consistently viewed it as the frontrunner for Best Picture since its release. Kalshi currently prices ‘The Odyssey’ at 54%, with Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi’s ‘The Black Ball’ at 27% and a tie at 1%. Trading volume on the market is nearing $6.8 million, and the chart has gone viral on X.

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The 54% figure is solid, yet it is lower than where the film stood a month ago. Trader odds had ‘The Odyssey’ at 58% about a month back and 59% on August 20, when ‘The Black Ball’ was at 12%. The Kalshi board now indicates ‘The Black Ball’ has gained 12 points, while ‘Dune: Part Three’ is at 9% after a 4-point drop.

While the market data does not specify why, the challenger has been gaining traction. ‘The Black Ball’ premiered at Cannes in May, where its directors won Best Director, and Netflix subsequently won the bidding war for its release. The Hollywood Reporter described it as an epic about gay men in war-torn Spain and a significant Netflix contender for the Oscars, with Variety’s TIFF People’s Choice predictions ranking it second.

The film is a nearly 160-minute epic that spans decades of gay history in Spain. It is set for a Spanish theatrical release on September 25 and is among the three films shortlisted by Spain for the Best International Feature category. Early reviews have been mixed regarding its scale, according to one market analysis.

‘The Odyssey’ still has numerous advantages. Traders also place it well ahead in several nomination markets, including Adapted Screenplay at 87%, Best Original Score at 88%, and Best Achievement in Casting at 87%. Awards Daily’s early Best Picture rankings also list the film in first place.

Screenshot 2026 08 04 at 16 43 20 La Bola Negra Rotten Tomatoes

Though it isn’t universally praised, the film has received some criticism for its deviations from the source material and for Nolan’s writing, while certain cultural critics have raised concerns about specific casting choices. Nevertheless, the overall reception has been largely positive.

A win for ‘The Odyssey’ would give Nolan back-to-back Best Picture wins as a producer, following ‘Oppenheimer’. Whether or not this narrative gains traction, it highlights how integral Nolan’s story is to the ongoing conversation.

Screenshot 2026 07 25 at 11 02 38 The Odyssey 2026 Rotten Tomatoes

There is still ample time for shifts in the race. The 99th Academy Awards are scheduled for March 14, 2027, and festivals, critics’ groups, and guild precursors have only just begun. Markets can also change rapidly, as last year’s race illustrated when ‘One Battle After Another’ crossed the 75-cent threshold early before winning Best Picture in March.

Other contenders remain in the mix as well, including ‘Dune: Part Three’, ‘Project Hail Mary’, and Martin McDonagh’s ‘Wild Horse Nine’. Prediction market odds reflect trader sentiment rather than the Academy’s actual voters, making them best interpreted as a snapshot rather than a definitive outcome.

For now, the landscape is clear enough: a summer mega-hit facing off against a Cannes-backed international epic.

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